Footprint imbalances

Starting today, we're going to test out a new concept.

We'll provide live commentary, either here in writing or on Discord via voice + screen sharing, covering the session and taking our trades live whenever possible.

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The September 2026 E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract (NQU2026) experienced a volatile session during its first two hours of trading on Thursday, July 9, 2026, marked by a slight upward opening followed by a sharp drop to the day's lows, before a partial rebound.

The contract opened at 29,417 points, a level almost unchanged compared to the previous day's close at 29,391.5 points, reflecting an initially neutral sentiment in pre-market trading. However, this early stability did not last, as U.S. indices quickly slipped into the red under the pressure of persistent geopolitical tensions, particularly the announced resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran following the ceasefire breakdown mentioned by President Trump.

The context behind this volatility is largely explained by the release, the previous day (July 8), of the minutes from the FOMC meeting held on June 16-17, the first one chaired by new Chairman Kevin Warsh. This document revealed a marked division within the committee between members favoring holding the benchmark rate steady, currently set between 3.50% and 3.75%, and those now considering a rate hike before the end of 2026 in response to inflation reignited by the US-Israeli conflict against Iran. This more hawkish-than-expected tone, combined with the removal of any reference to future rate cuts from the official statement, weighed on market sentiment and fueled profit-taking in the tech sector, which is particularly sensitive to rate expectations.

Over the two hours following the open, the contract staged a technical recovery from its lows, climbing back toward 29,276.50 points, which still represents a decline of 0.39% from the previous close but a marked improvement from the morning's low point. Trading volume reached approximately 391,947 contracts during this window, a level reflecting the heightened activity typical of sessions driven by dense macroeconomic news. On the technical front, daily indicators remained in "strong sell" territory at this stage, reflecting the persistent fragility of momentum despite the intraday rebound.

It should be noted that these figures correspond to a snapshot taken around 5:35 PM CEST (approximately two hours after the opening of Wall Street at 3:30 PM CEST), and that the session could still change significantly before the close, particularly if new developments on the Iranian issue or comments from Fed officials were to fuel volatility.

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